Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83565747a15263dd0f911faf32b9436c5867f2f3e04b036928ab3793174fbed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 2,963$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 19c | 1,360$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.43 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 8c | 1,056$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 16c | 978.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 4c | 604.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 601.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 14c | 577.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 507.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 5c | 446.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 408.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 406.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 305.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…d214backed Yes | 9c | 298.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 250.38$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…94b2backed Yes | 9c | 221.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…8a95backed Yes | 7c | 184.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 14c | 176.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 11c | 172.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 12c | 162.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…46e7backed Yes | 13c | 157.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 153.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 18c | 152.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…c1f1backed Yes | 12c | 121.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 77c | 119.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 109.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 108.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 18c | 100.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 11c | 94.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 12c | 92.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 20c | 76.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 74.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 17c | 70.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 55.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 21c | 55.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 47.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 72c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 74c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.