TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c1,918$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.618,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes23c1,185$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes30c978.09$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.456630.3%20 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes20c857.51$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c797.37$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.585,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes27c691.61$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No69c621.8$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes18c602.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.421,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes26c580$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.078845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c550.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.381,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c549.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c514.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes5c511.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c423.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.41,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c388.37$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.074,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No76c357.06$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.72,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c354.4$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes25c325.78$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9130332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c319.01$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.554,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No78c317.73$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.211,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No76c292.66$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c291.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes28c271.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5116129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c264.53$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.823,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c261$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.925,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes39c258.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c255.39$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.63,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c250.08$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.495,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c247.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes24c246.34$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.121,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No77c246.09$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9165965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes22c233.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.653,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No79c230.31$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1516543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c227.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No77c220$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.41,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c74…01c3backed Yes27c199.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.391315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes26c180$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1914524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes17c179.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.419022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes8c177$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9935232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c177$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c173.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.452,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c170.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.74,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c168.58$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No76c164.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4154853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes12c155.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes25c151.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No76c148$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6623666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c141.8$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.442,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No79c139.94$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c134.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4286226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.338458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No75c133.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2632872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…9c82backed Yes23c131.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc475…eeb0backed Yes26c129.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes22c119.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.082,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…46e7backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-82.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes22c108.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.779832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c104.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.824,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes35c102$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.712941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c100.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.587,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1825135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c95.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c95.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.462,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes23c92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9255954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes22c91.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes26c89.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes22c89.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes17c88.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.063,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c0…befdbacked Yes25c79.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No75c75.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf65…d214backed Yes27c75.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc5…d713backed Yes16c73.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes29c72.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdc…dfabbacked Yes26c72.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.163745.9%17 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No78c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.627056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes22c69.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes19c65.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes31c63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.483455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes19c61.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes29c59.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes23c59.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes23c58.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.647925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1b1…6593backed No71c56.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c54.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.919566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c54.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.792,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No78c54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes23c53.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.183,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c52.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.395,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes25c52.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2851…d63cbacked No78c51.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.363444.1%15 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.