Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5963c2cd0f718744797b19919e1e14f65960a96d976580be5d0b1a772eef77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,918$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 23c | 1,185$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 30c | 978.09$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 857.51$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 797.37$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 27c | 691.61$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 621.8$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.46 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 602.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 26c | 580$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 550.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 549.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 514.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 511.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 423.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 388.37$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 76c | 357.06$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 354.4$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 25c | 325.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 319.01$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 78c | 317.73$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 292.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 291.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 28c | 271.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 264.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 261$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes | 39c | 258.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 255.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 250.08$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 247.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 24c | 246.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 246.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 233.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 79c | 230.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 227.12$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 27c | 199.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 26c | 180$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 17c | 179.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 8c | 177$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 177$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 173.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 170.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 168.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 164.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 155.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 25c | 151.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 148$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 141.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 139.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 134.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…9c82backed Yes | 23c | 131.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 26c | 129.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 119.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…46e7backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 22c | 108.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 104.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 100.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 95.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 95.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 22c | 91.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 89.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 22c | 89.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 88.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 25c | 79.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 75.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…d214backed Yes | 27c | 75.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed Yes | 16c | 73.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…dfabbacked Yes | 26c | 72.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 22c | 69.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 19c | 65.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 31c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 61.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 59.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 23c | 59.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 23c | 58.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…6593backed No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 54.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 54.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 53.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 52.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 25c | 52.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 78c | 51.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.