TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef32…265cbacked No66c4,228$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.28845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes32c2,026$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.8416724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba44…7d2cbacked Yes17c1,160$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-92.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes29c982.79$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes33c931.22$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes31c831.06$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c826.3$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.555,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes33c670.32$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4810134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes41c622.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.371,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32af…a7c3backed Yes54c600$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.623842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No77c585.97$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.784,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes25c523.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.827729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c519.59$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.694,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes31c510.21$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c509.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.463,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c506.59$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c456.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c400$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.215,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes36c384.73$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c357.68$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes28c350$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.131,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes29c341.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.141,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c336.47$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.834,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes21c317.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.892,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No68c313.46$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No73c310.94$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.444366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes28c300.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.19832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes20c291.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.231,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No68c285.71$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes30c264.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c250.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.662,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No71c246.09$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c246.07$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.635,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No61c246$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes41c243.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…daa4backed Yes23c236.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c229.75$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.351,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c227.12$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.123,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes27c220$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.419022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68e0…17abbacked No77c214.12$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c207.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9a…587ebacked No65c205.04$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606630.3%20 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7461…3515backed Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c74…01c3backed Yes36c199.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.371315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed Yes28c189.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.812236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes35c183.59$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c180.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.311,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c175.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.574,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c170.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No61c168$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8357948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c165.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.262,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes30c160$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes28c146.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.417832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes32c143.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4658152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes37c142.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.391,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c141.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.042,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc475…eeb0backed Yes36c139.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes45c132.7$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes34c131.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3515044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c130.81$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.643,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c130.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes31c128$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c127$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.024,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c127$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.483,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c125.22$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…46e7backed Yes35c123.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-82.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No67c123.14$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3434151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No72c116.37$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2492678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes40c116$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.141,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa287…416cbacked Yes43c108$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.321822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No74c108$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes46c105$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed No73c102.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.165637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x553b…b5bebacked Yes34c100.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.491729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x870a…20e8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.612941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe707…e0cfbacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No69c97.57$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c94.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.874,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No65c94.12$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes36c91.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes33c91.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No72c90.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes17c89.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes21c88.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.342,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.418142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes33c75.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.855042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes22c74.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5147239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No44c74.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7716847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes33c74.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.743458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.