Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0e3f84bdd01544144fe0af4611e76670b2926d0522968bd21f6decf8608db6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 66c | 4,228$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.2 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 32c | 2,026$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.84 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…7d2cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,160$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 982.79$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.03 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 33c | 931.22$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.69 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 31c | 831.06$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.43 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 826.3$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 33c | 670.32$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 41c | 622.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 54c | 600$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.62 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 585.97$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 25c | 523.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 519.59$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 31c | 510.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 509.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 506.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 456.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 400$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 384.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 357.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 341.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 336.47$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 317.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 313.46$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 73c | 310.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 28c | 300.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 291.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 285.71$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 264.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 250.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 246.09$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 246.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 61c | 246$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes | 41c | 243.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…daa4backed Yes | 23c | 236.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 229.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 227.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 27c | 220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…17abbacked No | 77c | 214.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 207.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked No | 65c | 205.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 36c | 199.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed Yes | 28c | 189.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 35c | 183.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 180.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 175.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 170.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 168$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 165.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 28c | 146.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 32c | 143.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 37c | 142.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 141.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 45c | 132.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 34c | 131.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 130.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 130.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 128$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 127$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 125.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…46e7backed Yes | 35c | 123.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 67c | 123.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 116.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 73c | 102.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked Yes | 34c | 100.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…20e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 97.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 94.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 94.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 91.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 33c | 91.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 72c | 90.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 89.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 88.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 33c | 75.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 22c | 74.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 74.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 33c | 74.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.