Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837d07e3b9ba95577707beb6e4e4dbf1a668fda942ba610db02154fd459a0c82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed Yes | 31c | 4,839$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,338.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 4,349$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.1 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 62c | 2,682$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.06 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 2,167$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.09 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 2,001$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.1 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…0b1bbacked No | 71c | 1,549$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 55c | 1,256$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.52 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 1,207$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.89 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,015$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.45 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c72…46dbbacked No | 56c | 742.86$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 37c | 679.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.95 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 62c | 587.25$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.66 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 54c | 521.72$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 39c | 389.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 39c | 253.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 47c | 219.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 189.57$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 47c | 184.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 145$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…9069backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 29c | 138.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…60c0backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 44c | 122.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 65c | 102.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 62c | 96.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 56c | 93.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 84.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…c1c7backed No | 64c | 65.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…681bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…3bb3backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 58.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 57.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 32c | 52.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 50c | 47.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 70c | 47.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 30c | 37.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 51c | 37.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…779cbacked Yes | 32c | 37.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…9753backed Yes | 70c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 45c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…400bbacked No | 71c | 27.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 53c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 77c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 69c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…7b0fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…eb9dbacked Yes | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yes | 59c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-13?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.