South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8396539dcec12fefab9b8399352d00f92821b56436cdf11d97f73e91e39fec5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 51c | 14,007$7,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,811.83 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 45c | 4,576$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.62 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 48c | 4,304$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.88 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 49c | 3,706$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.7 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 26c | 2,580$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.08 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 71c | 2,379$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.64 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 24c | 1,656$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.16 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…b3f3backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 75c | 805.16$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 50c | 569.82$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 548.67$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.39 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 49c | 369$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 74c | 344$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 47c | 265.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 52c | 229.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 70c | 176.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Yes | 57c | 159.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…fe34backed Yes | 79c | 158.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 138$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 48c | 102.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 47c | 101.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 98.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 52c | 94.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 48c | 90.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 19c | 72.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed No | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 67.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 28c | 65.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 26c | 62.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 65c | 61.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 21c | 55.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…bd64backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 27c | 55.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed Yes | 54c | 50.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…6b36backed No | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed Yes | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…738cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed Yes | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 46c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 48c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 77c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.