Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d863d0588157dcceabded3ef2353feadcc507abc5638c4a1b860b87b5d4f78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 29c | 5,481$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.82 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 4,388$3,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 74c | 2,967$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 71c | 2,113$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 28c | 1,740$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 1,035$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 30c | 988.93$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 782.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.17 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 712.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 470.04$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 29c | 426.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 72c | 386.69$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 27c | 299.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 280.68$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 71c | 231$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over | 30c | 205$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Over | 29c | 141$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Under | 72c | 136.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 75c | 95.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 16c | 83.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 26c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…4c62backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…fb98backed Under | 78c | 38.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…90cfbacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 72c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.