Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x842150459278e87b826a87a8705b1a1d7229ec6b8ce0a3ee6297ba2cb239f1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 409.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Yes | 25c | 203.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 194.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 172.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 130.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 110.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 87.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 86.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 79.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 76.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a84…0340backed No | 66c | 74.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…f680backed Yes | 28c | 72.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 70.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 57.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 55.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 32c | 51.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 49.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 49.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 42.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 72c | 41.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 40.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 37.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 29.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…9a6abacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.