Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef50b4831db73a304c51d92556115020dd8dd4e026a827fa05e2692d16dcbc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 563.89$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 62c | 460.53$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.43 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 446.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed Yes | 11c | 377.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 61c | 274.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 69c | 233.62$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 195.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 161.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 31c | 158.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 153.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 149.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 146.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 115.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 34c | 112.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 16c | 110.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 38c | 107$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 15c | 95.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 14c | 94.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 35c | 91.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 88.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 39c | 71.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 68.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…2a52backed Yes | 17c | 64.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 36c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 32c | 42.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 77c | 34.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 33.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 71c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…1c40backed Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 47c | 26.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 72c | 19.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 69c | 17.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…0ff1backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.