Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2a46a49d1fe1d0d10889efc035fce4e233b68e3c76cd0d9b978c9379ab68cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 932.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 578.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 435.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 374.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 344.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 229.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 215.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 23c | 194.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 179.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 175.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 162.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 21c | 140.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 115.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 92.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 89.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 27c | 88.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 75c | 88.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 81.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 72.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 66.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 78c | 65.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 65.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…b980backed Yes | 22c | 64.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 19c | 63.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 27c | 59.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…f3c2backed Yes | 27c | 56.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 54.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a84…0340backed Yes | 36c | 50.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 44.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…fceabacked Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 41.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 28c | 36.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 71c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 77c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…2d32backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 71c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…a74abacked No | 71c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.