Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ea7c053769f56e4e3f1b05065935b4f602390f71aa807c42030912e3ed2582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 905.79$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 506.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 11c | 398.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 383.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 239.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 234.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 225.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 207.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 194.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 34c | 188.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 20c | 167.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 167.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Yes | 11c | 132.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 128.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 13c | 112.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 94.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 22c | 87.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 86.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 85.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 65c | 78.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 33c | 76.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a84…0340backed No | 38c | 72.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 27c | 58.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 53.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 53.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 20c | 51.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 50.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 47.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 35c | 38.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 32.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 28.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 27.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f855backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 71c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 23.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 70c | 22.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 21.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 21.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 70c | 14.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.