Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x844c38ceb32d92c22cd10a2d7ae8046afc84de5d34da7fe2d443b517319c8362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 0c | 4,510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 301.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 286.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 267.85$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 217.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 39c | 215$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 205.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 191.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 181.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 167.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 149$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 144.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 135.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 128$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 118.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 112.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 110.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 92.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 88.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 87.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 40c | 84.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 74.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 45c | 63.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 61c | 57.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 56.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 53.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 53.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 53.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 48.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 48.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 47c | 47.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 49c | 45.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 44.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 41.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 40.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…8146backed Yes | 36c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 61c | 29.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 27.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed No | 60c | 26.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 50c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 24.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 57c | 17.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 60c | 16.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.