Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a8a7b2575770a35e85a86a786b2a5281804438fd419723e8b8f62229d0ea2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 57c | 4,784$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.32 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,127$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 710.38$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 510.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 42c | 502.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 473.31$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 317.7$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 276.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 33c | 267.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 217.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 207$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 178.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 165.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 162.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 138.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 136.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 133.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 133.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 133$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 126.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 122.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 112.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 109.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 108.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 104.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 103.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 103.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 97.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 86.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 37c | 81.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 72.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 42c | 71.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 69.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 68.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 80c | 62.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 53c | 54.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 50c | 48.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 49c | 47.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 47.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 45.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 45.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 43.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 43.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 53c | 42.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 41.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 27c | 41.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 41.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 39.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 39.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 38.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 55c | 37.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 55c | 37.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 36.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 52c | 32.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 28.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 49c | 27.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 25.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 22.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.