Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a08ea0a42317a309474d38cced0cf567d2bc3c13703c2b2f7e588f98f32221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 46c | 786.64$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.34 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 60c | 417.09$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 370.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 346.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 34c | 309.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 260.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 63c | 257.87$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 234.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 226.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 211.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 15c | 190.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 180.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 159.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 61c | 146.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 39c | 137.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 133.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 47c | 126.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 124.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 119.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 115.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 47c | 108.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 21c | 103.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 72c | 103.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 99.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 42c | 97.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 96.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 62c | 93.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 23c | 93.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 41c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 61c | 81.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 81.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 49c | 80.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 79.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 77c | 77.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 55c | 67.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 44c | 67.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 38c | 64.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 63.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 22c | 61.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…21f2backed Yes | 42c | 60.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 63c | 58.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 42c | 51.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 49.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 61c | 49.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 55c | 48.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 31c | 47.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 47.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 64c | 46.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 43c | 46.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 63c | 46.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 45.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…b3fbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 63c | 37.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 45c | 37.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 55c | 36.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…c6f5backed No | 64c | 35.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 45c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 33c | 33.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 51c | 33.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 64c | 27.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 42c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 44c | 26.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 59c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 75c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 55c | 25.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 55c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 61c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 64c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.