Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d1b8dc374dc612d64fd09f215b2ce88431a70b52f066cf99bd46f1829234ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77e3…4dd8backed Yes | 29c | 2,765$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6920…1a8ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,720$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…ad94backed No | 71c | 1,405$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…9345backed No | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…64e3backed No | 71c | 1,360$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 1,325$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…c0abbacked No | 71c | 1,320$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 61c | 875.51$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.82 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 797.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 39c | 707.36$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.7 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 35c | 562.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.66 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 559.94$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.61 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 72c | 411.36$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 74c | 362.62$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.89 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 26c | 356.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 341.59$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 333.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 297.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 291.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 278.21$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 26c | 231.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.88 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 216.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 213.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 52c | 211.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 205$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 38c | 197.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 45c | 166.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 61c | 150.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 142.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 134.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 124.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 115.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 26c | 114.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 75c | 103.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 100.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 40c | 94.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 36c | 91.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 89.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 60c | 87.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 29c | 84.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 82.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 40c | 82.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 47c | 79.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 77.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 16c | 71.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 69.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 68.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 57.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…c1d0backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 53.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 51.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366b…2a37backed Yes | 42c | 51.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 73c | 51.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes | 26c | 51.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 73c | 51.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 73c | 50.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked No | 56c | 49.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 48.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 56c | 48.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 55c | 48.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 56c | 48.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 78c | 45.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 40.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 39.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 76c | 39.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 57c | 38.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 38.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 37.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 73c | 37.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 35.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…5774backed Yes | 30c | 34.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 31c | 31.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.