TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins72c482$346 inWon+$135.938,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants26c450$118 inLost-$117.51,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins70c304.31$212 inWon+$92.312,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants30c202.86$61 inLost-$60.8610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants29c189.6$56 inLost-$55.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins74c139.23$103 inWon+$36.73,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants32c60.94$20 inLost-$19.579543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants27c60$16 inLost-$15.91,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins79c25$20 inWon+$5.2588053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Miami Marlins73c20$15 inWon+$5.3734754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Miami Marlins73c18.7$14 inWon+$4.9883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…d77abacked Miami Marlins74c16.93$13 inWon+$4.347650%38 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins75c15.92$12 inWon+$4.012,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.