MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1b513e38071f6fdad4e7b5cc70756ece593b600cf5cc3ee746e75e9770fd19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 47,702$29,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,774.74 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 22,459$9,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,002.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 10,064$3,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,218.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 7,081$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,461.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 5,849$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…4454backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 5,415$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,927$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 2,030$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.76 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,496$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.84 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 967.96$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 709.09$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 700$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.4 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 636$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.32 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 553.59$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 433.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 403.5$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 335.27$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 294.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 270$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 251.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 174$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 151.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 143$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 134.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 128.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 105.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 74.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 62.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 55.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 49.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 47.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a3a1backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 40.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed San Francisco Giants | 48c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 36.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 33.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 29.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 24.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4188…8737backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.