MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077aa4d7511baf333a329e4d37603220f86de411c97f1ebb856fc2b5c7a66507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 10,741$5,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,079.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 5,081$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 4,016$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.56 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 3,165$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.89 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 1,555$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.23 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 28c | 1,069$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 59c | 759.32$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 356.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 30c | 276.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 18c | 253.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 247.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 100.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 55c | 81.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 73.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 57c | 69.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…3f5bbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 44%111 W · 141 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20bb…9732backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 58c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 30c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 41c | 28.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 49c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 49c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Over | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 57c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 57c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…d7c0backed Under | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b4…1630backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.