MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e1d74c8f99b1dadedc03ee158bc5a412ff33228ba5b59706d9ebcdb409974c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 4,763$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 3,682$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 1,680$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 1,676$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.22 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 1,660$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.2 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.07 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.16 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 758.28$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 745.87$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 420$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 36c | 258$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 249.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 46c | 216.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 35c | 200.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 195.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 52c | 57.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 52.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 64c | 42.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 39.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 31c | 35.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 35.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 34.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…051abacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 50c | 22.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.