MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3847c2fefd3e8c83b1f76256bcfc049b4b8c379881dfc81ef55c84b1bd585c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 7,653$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 2,526$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,992$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 59c | 1,900$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.42 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 66c | 909.17$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.17 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 453.42$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 52c | 427.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 391.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 334$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 314.84$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 52c | 294.23$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 61c | 274.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 11c | 255$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 201.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 13c | 150.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 117$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 13c | 105$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 42c | 103.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 85.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 76c | 85.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 80.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20bb…9732backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 57c | 59.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 74c | 58.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 40c | 50.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 48c | 44.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 49c | 36.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Under | 49c | 29.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 46c | 27.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 53c | 26.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 25.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Under | 65c | 22.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 56c | 21.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.