TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c21,450$21 inLost-$21.45650%0 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b2fabacked Yes2c4,544$76 inLost-$75.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6eb…c64cbacked Yes0c3,695$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes1c3,561$21 inLost-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff42…6fb7backed Yes1c3,355$20 inLost-$20254%1 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1309…4a35backed Yes2c2,191$40 inLost-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c7…0367backed Yes2c1,147$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd188…ae31backed Yes2c798.09$17 inLost-$17119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5107…4106backed Yes4c558$20 inLost-$19.53825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.