NFL · resolved market
Will "I Like It" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x867cd066b0385e7fffaffa91eec674196e87df27d78978cec01b4e90960afede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 23,539$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 65 | 0%0 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…6fb7backed Yes | 0c | 4,487$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed Yes | 0c | 3,631$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…70abbacked Yes | 0c | 2,220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a8…4366backed Yes | 0c | 2,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Yes | 3c | 1,767$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…fcd9backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…643cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,413$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,257$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…ec43backed Yes | 1c | 737.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…4b22backed Yes | 3c | 734.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…2cebbacked Yes | 7c | 687.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…943ebacked Yes | 2c | 670$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…25abbacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 621.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…b378backed Yes | 3c | 394.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Like It" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Efecto" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "La Jumpa" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "La Santa" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Me Porto Bonito" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Neverita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Ojitos Lindos" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "PERRO NEGRO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will "Yonaguni" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.