Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e366f99839ea85f7297399f1b51945fd600529bd8ba761ba663a1f4668973c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 55,671$11,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,800.05 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 46,708$36,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,025.66 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 79c | 8,565$6,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.8 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 73c | 4,999$3,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.78 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…6660backed Over | 0c | 4,337$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over | 20c | 3,135$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.09 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 2,351$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.22 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 42c | 2,056$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 16c | 1,127$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 27c | 928.09$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 800.08$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.04 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 595.13$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 569.51$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 40c | 558.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.65 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 28c | 385.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Over | 29c | 364$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 61c | 314.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 64c | 293.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 270.8$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Over | 22c | 266.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 228.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 227.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Under | 68c | 212.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 63c | 161.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 73c | 137.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Under | 74c | 134.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 49c | 129.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 56c | 123$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Under | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 64c | 113.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 28c | 108.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 42c | 104.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…8fbabacked Over | 21c | 96.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 30c | 90.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 58c | 87.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 27c | 79.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…9812backed Under | 57c | 76.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed Under | 66c | 74.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 27c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 78c | 63.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 63c | 60.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 23c | 57.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 78c | 46.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 75c | 42.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Over | 33c | 41.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Under | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 72c | 34.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4b…f8babacked Under | 59c | 32.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 31.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Under | 63c | 30.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 73c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…e45abacked Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Under | 68c | 28.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…4bc8backed Under | 75c | 28.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 51c | 27.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…b65abacked Under | 68c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 53c | 21.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…63d3backed Under | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 79c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.