Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84fe73e5fe33561c77f9b029e28edf1468e76273739e7a6db0945adfff6f1cf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Kjaer, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Kjaer | 37c | 8,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.98 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Opelka | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Opelka | 68c | 5,982$4,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Kjaer | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kjaer | 38c | 4,073$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.81 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Opelka | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Opelka | 63c | 3,471$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.82 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kjaer | 39c | 3,191$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.32 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Opelka | 69c | 2,763$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.85 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kjaer | 33c | 2,671$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Kjaer | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Kjaer | 38c | 1,633$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.54 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Kjaer | 22c | 1,302$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.91 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kjaer | 15c | 992.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Kjaer | 38c | 955.38$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.78 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Opelka | 62c | 882.99$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.54 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Opelka | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kjaer | 37c | 701.86$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.67 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Kjaer | 36c | 680.73$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.26 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Opelka | 61c | 657.58$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Kjaer | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Opelka | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…e795backed Opelka | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Opelka | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Kjaer | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Opelka | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Opelka | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Opelka | 63c | 325.38$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kjaer | 35c | 324.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…8e9dbacked Opelka | 61c | 320$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Kjaer | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Kjaer | 16c | 270$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde69…e82ebacked Opelka | 63c | 261.54$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Opelka | 68c | 254.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Opelka | 59c | 253.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Opelka | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Kjaer | 41c | 244.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Opelka | 77c | 208.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Opelka | 61c | 162.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…34b1backed Opelka | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Opelka | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Opelka | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -10.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Opelka | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kjaer | 34c | 155.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Opelka | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…f81abacked Opelka | 77c | 130.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Kjaer | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Kjaer | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Opelka | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 706 | 52.7%372 W · 334 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Kjaer | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Kjaer | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kjaer | 12c | 95.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Kjaer | 38c | 90.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Opelka | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Opelka | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Opelka | 61c | 76.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Kjaer | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…56fdbacked Kjaer | 39c | 51.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Opelka | 69c | 50.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Kjaer | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kjaer | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Opelka | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Kjaer | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Kjaer | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…0355backed Opelka | 64c | 40.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Opelka | 65c | 39.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Opelka | 62c | 34.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Opelka | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Opelka | 65c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Kjaer | 38c | 30.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6a…6bd1backed Opelka | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Opelka | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelkathis page
- Kjaer vs. Opelka: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kjaer vs OpelkaOpelka won
- Set Handicap: Opelka (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5)Opelka won
- Set Handicap: Opelka (-2.5) vs Kjaer (+2.5)Opelka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.