MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85503215aa150e83763c919e629ab4fd2ed1778d4b93777be4420e0770c86759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Soxof Red Sox, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Red Sox | 47c | 15,000$7,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,990.83 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 53c | 9,305$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.53 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 45c | 1,982$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Red Sox | 45c | 1,590$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Royals | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Royals | 55c | 1,398$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Royals | 54c | 1,193$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.34 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Royals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Sox | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Royals | 54c | 929$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.66 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 35c | 815.18$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.88 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Red Sox | 46c | 799.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 53c | 687.42$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.45 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Royals | 54c | 513.56$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Red Sox | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Red Sox | 45c | 445.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 45c | 412.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 29c | 402.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Royals | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Red Sox | 44c | 289.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.29 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Red Sox | 45c | 223$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Red Sox | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Royals | 53c | 209$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Royals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Royals | 53c | 172.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Royals | 7c | 161.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Red Sox | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Royals | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 10c | 106.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Red Sox | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Red Sox | 46c | 105.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…022bbacked Red Sox | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Royals | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Red Sox | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 55c | 86.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddf…9710backed Royals | 56c | 76.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…b74cbacked Red Sox | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Royals | 57c | 57.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Red Sox | 76c | 57.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Royals | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…f53bbacked Royals | 52c | 52.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Red Sox | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Royals | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Red Sox | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 54c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Red Sox | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 55c | 33.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Royals | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Royals | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Red Sox | 54c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751e…3b9dbacked Royals | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…2af9backed Red Sox | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9306…d419backed Red Sox | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.