MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x859ef7e3dd15c89436e5edcb2d1adb85c657893bb817216784a4fe580168d9c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 116,478$62,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,579.86 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 46c | 60,000$27,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,600 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 24,902$11,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,454.92 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 11,626$5,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,347.96 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 9,630$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,429.69 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 6,210$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.6 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 1,593$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.81 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 1,346$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.16 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 955$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.3 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 555.36$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 46c | 550$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 25c | 511.91$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 46c | 444.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 46c | 356.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Over | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 46c | 336$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 46c | 295.38$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 235.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 26c | 207.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 54c | 206$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 199.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 145.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Over | 46c | 136.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 53c | 132.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Over | 46c | 74.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Over | 46c | 54.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 46c | 52.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 51.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 46c | 49.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 34.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Over | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.