MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6fe346c4195c4e5277a875554c87c99e7d24dac55ef7d2b0e084de5a526559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 17,725$8,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,609.73 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 12,018$5,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,023.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 5,757$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.64 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 5,448$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 3,413$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.35 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 2,295$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 2,169$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 1,894$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.11 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 1,418$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.5 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 939.86$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 893.62$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 631.06$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 562$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 499.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.9 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 400.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 300.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 288.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 271.44$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 259$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 236.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 232$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 223.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 212$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 163.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 134.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 120.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 119$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 103.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 101.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 101.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…edf0backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 90.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 75.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 70.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 63.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 43.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 36.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 29.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 24.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.