MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85abe30b8d5e178cf080a600cbaa46516c2592a3fa52a93735a64272ed5dc51b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 55c | 20,568$11,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,289.14 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 8,041$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,306.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 7,953$3,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,747.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 7,514$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 5,166$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,773.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 54c | 4,200$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 52c | 3,291$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.49 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 1,004$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.08 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 34c | 999$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 918.85$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 868.42$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 642$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 48c | 624.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 560.89$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 465.03$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 425.69$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 33c | 391$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 388.68$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 6c | 224$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 215.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 47c | 179$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Over | 47c | 147.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 143.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 44c | 134.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 48c | 79.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…6569backed Over | 44c | 78.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 52.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 49c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 53c | 42.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…4c98backed Under | 53c | 39.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Under | 38c | 36.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 48c | 34.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 48c | 33.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 47c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Over | 45c | 23.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 52c | 22.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 48c | 21.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.