NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Jaguars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c5f44aa8f5bc1f4588dc0825eb266b31b245c2db6d7e594d95ff4920c204a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Steelers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jaguars | 69c | 17,909$12,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,305.62 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Steelers | 31c | 17,556$5,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,113.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Jaguars | 69c | 3,699$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.72 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Steelers | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.99 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Jaguars | 59c | 2,082$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.98 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…a26cbacked Jaguars | 50c | 1,938$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Steelers | 33c | 1,400$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.85 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Steelers | 48c | 1,035$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.41 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Jaguars | 64c | 1,027$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.01 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Steelers | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Steelers | 34c | 799.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.98 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Jaguars | 37c | 665.88$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Jaguars | 3c | 645.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jaguars | 22c | 569.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Steelers | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Steelers | 45c | 475$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.94 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jaguars | 9c | 465.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…411cbacked Steelers | 36c | 427.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jaguars | 65c | 370$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Steelers | 43c | 323$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Steelers | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Jaguars | 64c | 299.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Steelers | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Steelers | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Jaguars | 68c | 256.22$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…780dbacked Jaguars | 69c | 249.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Jaguars | 40c | 235.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Steelers | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…ba19backed Steelers | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Steelers | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Steelers | 54c | 186.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Steelers | 32c | 171.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Steelers | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 65c | 171$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Jaguars | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ac…091ebacked Jaguars | 67c | 150.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Steelers | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Steelers | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Steelers | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Steelers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Steelers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Steelers | 51c | 96.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Steelers | 32c | 96.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Steelers | 34c | 82.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Steelers | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed Steelers | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…0165backed Steelers | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Jaguars | 67c | 60.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Jaguars | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…c98fbacked Steelers | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Jaguars | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Steelers | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Jaguars | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Steelers | 33c | 51.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Steelers | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Jaguars | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Steelers | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Steelers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Jaguars | 66c | 40.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Steelers | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Steelers | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Jaguars | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…4e58backed Steelers | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked Jaguars | 66c | 37.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked Steelers | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Jaguars | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Jaguars | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Steelers | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Steelers | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Steelers | 43c | 25.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…6ab8backed Jaguars | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.