MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d69574cd4810096cd407aa82422f534648399a8032fb198d62f15980954099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 100,000$44,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,996.6 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 55c | 94,920$52,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,714.05 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 12,601$9,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 61c | 8,073$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.13 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 8,071$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 5,933$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 1,772$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.44 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 1c | 1,194$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 12c | 1,152$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 1,108$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 55c | 1,092$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.55 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e6ddbacked Over | 44c | 1,022$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 1,015$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 989.89$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 459.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 46c | 417.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.87 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 291.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 15c | 214.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 12c | 212$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 193$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 170.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Under | 59c | 170.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 46c | 159.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 136.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 55c | 135$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 129.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 105.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 85.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 35c | 73.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 56c | 63.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 73c | 50.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 54c | 40.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Under | 55c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…21dcbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 60c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.