TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba38…e406backed Over56c47,968$26,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,105.853060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Under44c35,805$15,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,754.1343647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under44c21,252$9,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,278.8711,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under49c6,220$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.831,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,58021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over51c5,925$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.4110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Under44c4,833$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.5519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over54c3,937$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.214,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Under38c3,918$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.0279442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over56c3,228$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over56c1,820$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.81,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over56c1,775$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.1538353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c1,594$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.2512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over57c1,409$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.8787750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under44c1,024$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.562,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over50c1,019$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.44,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over56c966$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.042,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under44c873.02$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.132,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3081,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…7da3backed Over21c630.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.751794.1%16 W · 1 L+5.9wins+0.35per pick59cpaid+80%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26418649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under50c504.42$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.976,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Over57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2154257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over67c499.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.364,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under43c498$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.143,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Under52c471.44$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1516355.8%91 W · 72 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Over45c420$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23111051.8%57 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under50c410.4$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.21,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under44c327.8$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2327351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Under25c314.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0154715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under71c228$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.111,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under51c221.38$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.372,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Over57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under50c196.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0679255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over13c185.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3970737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4438252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4437256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under44c170.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9847350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under43c162$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.141,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over56c160$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.43464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c158.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.195,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under44c151$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.442,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over56c140$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.673849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under44c137.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.284,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under44c136.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.112,94447.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L+4.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Over29c135$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.56377.8%49 W · 14 L+10.0wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+93.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Under44c131.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9243459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Over57c122.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8167449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under50c113.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.981,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under53c102.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.082,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4499447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed Over55c95$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.753138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c93.07$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.818,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Under44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Under44c86.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9534451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over49c85.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7717253.5%92 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over44c85.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under65c74.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.471,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa214…0653backed Under45c71.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.393946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under43c65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under44c64.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1827345.4%124 W · 149 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Under71c63.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.748862.5%55 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over76c62.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.825,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd312…4a63backed Over57c61.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Over56c57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.088940.4%36 W · 53 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Over58c55.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4126752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Over58c55.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.423854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Over57c53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7924749%121 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under68c51.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0374657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a6…6684backed Over72c48.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.825581.8%45 W · 10 L+11.4wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+29.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over55c48.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.782853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under44c44.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7844553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under47c42.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.023,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under52c40.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0616250.6%82 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Over35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over34c35.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3947646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409d…8f47backed Under44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511050.9%56 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a0…5911backed Over46c30.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.528248.8%40 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over45c29.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2487370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Over57c24.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5689950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Under51c22.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6115953.5%85 W · 74 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under52c22.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.627545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.