TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants55c8,037$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,633.644,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c5,759$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.21,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants48c3,926$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.968,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks47c3,230$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.8911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks50c2,878$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants62c1,825$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.092,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c1,123$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.4810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Arizona Diamondbacks51c891$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.8279442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks37c634.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.943,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f17…b55dbacked San Francisco Giants55c555$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.752986.2%25 W · 4 L+8.3wins+0.29per pick58cpaid+78.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants62c545.17$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.161,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks37c469.07$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.566,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants63c324.32$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Arizona Diamondbacks11c276.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4254715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants61c210.93$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.265,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa782…cbafbacked San Francisco Giants17c210.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.44per pick19cpaid+281.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed San Francisco Giants70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607268.1%49 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c167.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked San Francisco Giants30c161$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2470737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c143.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.081,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants63c138.51$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6485949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants51c119.01$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.751,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks37c118.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.152,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed San Francisco Giants63c111.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1167449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants27c99.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.492,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Francisco Giants40c82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2255758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c73.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.968,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed San Francisco Giants63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4935353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants61c62.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.351,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants18c62.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.121,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed San Francisco Giants63c61.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c57.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c55.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9852852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked San Francisco Giants62c52.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9467444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1934843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked San Francisco Giants63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6245348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants25c40.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.574,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ab…faadbacked San Francisco Giants52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.275865.5%38 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c35.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.754,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c34.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8524448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c31.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.886,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks60c30.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.065,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c26.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.143429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c26.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.814847.9%23 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Arizona Diamondbacks47c25.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7134451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants63c22.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2289950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks52c19.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2636250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants55c18.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.261,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants67c17.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.795,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.