MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1fd8320cf4e2d2d2839dc09c1555c7b4d945696d1ee67224c2aceb9dc549a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 8,037$4,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 5,759$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 3,926$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 3,230$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 2,878$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,825$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 1,123$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 891$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.82 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 634.98$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 555$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 545.17$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 469.07$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 324.32$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 11c | 276.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 210.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…cbafbacked San Francisco Giants | 17c | 210.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.44per pick | 19cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 167.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 161$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 143.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 138.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 119.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 118.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 73.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 62.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 18c | 62.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 55.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 52.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 40.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 35.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 31.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 30.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 26.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 26.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 19.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 67c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.