NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e624ec8043b3a48f5222b9bede4ccca40a3a243c504f0bd513ca7ef862d3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 51c | 1,225$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,202$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.92 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 53c | 1,084$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.77 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 632$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Mavericks | 67c | 622.82$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks | 75c | 499.01$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Mavericks | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 49c | 419.34$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 52c | 319.85$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Nuggets | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Nuggets | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Nuggets | 54c | 213$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 21c | 194.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Nuggets | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…1852backed Mavericks | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Nuggets | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Nuggets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Nuggets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Nuggets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 54c | 87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Mavericks | 75c | 79.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Nuggets | 53c | 61.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Nuggets | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Nuggets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Mavericks | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Mavericks | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Mavericks | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mavericks | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Mavericks | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Nuggets | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Nuggets | 26c | 42.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Mavericks | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets | 53c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Nuggets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Mavericks | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…c93ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Mavericks | 76c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.