NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa14444a71a7eaed43d27bdc4163a3f087ace1482b28e9af81bed9b23dab8cff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 33,201$16,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,602.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 26,482$13,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,605.82 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 10,280$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,140 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 51c | 8,440$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.4 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 49c | 3,960$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.4 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 3,248$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 2,840$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.18 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 49c | 1,521$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.49 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 51c | 985.12$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.41 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 463$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 48c | 430$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 52c | 132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 51c | 98.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 52c | 58.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.