NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bde1c3475b6aeb8f6db7e41fadd4112a08b4c99815877fa69b9a8110c8a1e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 30,352$14,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,545.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Over | 53c | 17,544$9,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,326.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 54c | 10,000$5,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.19 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Over | 51c | 7,100$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Under | 49c | 7,100$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 5,732$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 4,567$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.87 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 47c | 4,354$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.38 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 4,261$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.84 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 48c | 1,920$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.6 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,578$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.33 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 1,241$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.27 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,132$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.58 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 51c | 992.65$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.25 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 985$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 46c | 823$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Under | 45c | 823$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.35 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 590$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 430.21$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 350$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 54c | 311.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Under | 46c | 311.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 48c | 298.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 47c | 280$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 278.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 52c | 192.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Under | 47c | 183.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…5365backed Under | 47c | 140.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 134.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 82.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 49c | 41.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…dd1dbacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5this page
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.