NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8d2b0282f3ede51696f3bf1e2de2bdf1b0f1d7ef383cc522b4283e04ce6053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Mavericks | 51c | 32,293$16,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,823.4 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 49c | 19,739$9,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,672.11 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Mavericks | 53c | 10,000$5,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,725.62 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 9,500$4,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,630 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…d4efbacked Nuggets | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Mavericks | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 4,851$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 3,720$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,098$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.45 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,583$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,528$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.79 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,009$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mavericks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 936.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Nuggets | 49c | 859$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.91 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…543cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 856.31$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.59 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 684.62$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Mavericks | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Mavericks | 52c | 526.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nuggets | 31c | 362.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 47c | 362.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.16 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 53c | 311.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mavericks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Nuggets | 47c | 163.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 48c | 115.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Mavericks | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Nuggets | 50c | 101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Mavericks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Nuggets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Mavericks | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae3…3b2dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 34c | 94.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Nuggets | 50c | 94.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 94.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Mavericks | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Mavericks | 53c | 56.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mavericks | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…750fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Mavericks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Mavericks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 33.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Mavericks | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Mavericks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Nuggets | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Mavericks | 54c | 25.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.