NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaf48a51b3322118f4d5dd8ff3955172f078411f432cfe0a6f97407b8310a1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 50c | 60,197$29,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,807.16 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 52c | 51,538$26,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,897.16 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 26,069$13,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,040.14 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 24,000$11,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,600 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 11,795$5,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,874.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Under | 49c | 10,118$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 51c | 10,068$5,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,113.76 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 8,093$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.35 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Over | 50c | 8,060$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 5,265$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 5,119$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 3,335$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.8 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 2,634$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,277$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 48c | 1,739$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.28 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.99 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,129$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 1,036$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.31 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 55c | 927.27$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.27 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 48c | 719.33$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.28 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 686.14$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.35 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…85eebacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 26c | 213.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Over | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 51c | 150.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 51c | 149.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 111.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…d78abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 53c | 79.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…cdb1backed Over | 51c | 76.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5c1dbacked Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…92ecbacked Under | 52c | 73.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 48c | 64.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…0732backed Over | 51c | 52.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Over | 51c | 47.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…bffcbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…d257backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…2309backed Over | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…0c7dbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 50c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5this page
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.