TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No41c2,199$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.781,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes75c545.21$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No16c525.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.152,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No40c348.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No15c346.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.682,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes59c228.81$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.812339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes59c212.39$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.083,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes53c187.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2219559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No59c136.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c131.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c120.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.424,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c119.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2182742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No23c108.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.753,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No41c102.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6815850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes49c101.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4260550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes55c98.11$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.792,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c95.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.554,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No43c91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.283,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes50c90.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.641,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c87.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes47c86.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.011,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed Yes57c80.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.485851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c74.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes55c70.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes43c69.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c68.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.674,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c64.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes52c63.55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.051,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c54.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7261249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2621339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes57c47.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.53,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No42c47.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.073,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No39c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed No37c43.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1676936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No32c39.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No39c37.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9276059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked Yes57c37.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0628035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8525261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed Yes49c34.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8513554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes51c34.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes53c33.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8216656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes53c33.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8215556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa03c…9a81backed Yes57c33.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.463441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes53c31.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.743158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.737749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes78c28.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3661676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes45c27.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3423731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes54c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No42c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes49c26.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5625342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x796a…e815backed Yes55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.854,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No50c25.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.828762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4215347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.535137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe55…516ebacked Yes57c24.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c25…963dbacked Yes58c24.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7f…c50abacked Yes60c24.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes59c23.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.732867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes58c23.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.634360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes48c22.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.929048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes54c22.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.361,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes54c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.022,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes51c21.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.675657.1%32 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…a96dbacked Yes52c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.073043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes56c20.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1816642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.855261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes70c14.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.329783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.