Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8616ff504295ec9e6d5e46f8b74cab965ac3c9e059073cd9524dea304c22f471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 303.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 247.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 217.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 193.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 173.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 74c | 162.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 66c | 151.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 145.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 128.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 122.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 66c | 113.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 58c | 103.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 101.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 97.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 96.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 44c | 91.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 90.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 77.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 29c | 72.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 71.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 69.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 66.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 64.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 60.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 58.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 32c | 52.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 61c | 46.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 46.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 55c | 43.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 51c | 42.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 42.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 39.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 39.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 37.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 33.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 38c | 28.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 27.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 48c | 26.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 23.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 22.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 49c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.