Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90539e3a2f3dff5f8446ed286394c964223d7460c1d3a781a7f48f257c0f2494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 410.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 312.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 302.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 281.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 65c | 219.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 218.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 200.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 170.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 143.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 137.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 123$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 118$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 50c | 110.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 45c | 105.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 101.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 97.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 89.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 88.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 87.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 81.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 77.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 76.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 73.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 71.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 66.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 63.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 61.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 61.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 59.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 59.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 57.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 57.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 613 | 46.7%286 W · 327 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 47c | 55.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 56c | 55.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 49.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 28c | 49.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 19.8%21 W · 85 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 47.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 45.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 62c | 42.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 42.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 40.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 38.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…3405backed Yes | 36c | 35.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 33.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 48c | 31.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 262 | 66.8%175 W · 87 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 31.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 27.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 54c | 26.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 80c | 24.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 41c | 24.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 79c | 23.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,321 | 75.9%1,003 W · 318 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 56c | 17.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 76c | 13.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 405 | 36.5%148 W · 257 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.