Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x862708eaf3907f45e99540bd7635371647f2f314bb5ce6fe341ff7091e29253f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 372.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 48c | 214.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 194.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 38c | 186.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 171$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 162.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 48c | 157.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 65c | 140.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 128.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 25c | 121.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 114.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 110.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 36c | 108.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 101.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 97.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 89.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 41c | 85.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 63c | 71.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 63.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 55.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 54.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 52.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 54c | 44.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 32c | 33.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 28.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 26.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 54c | 23.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 58c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.