Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf01d61f19e5122feeb429684de87970a724b0387642a98633d54b5fe96c7ca9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 398.03$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 338.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 331.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 71c | 281.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 276.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 264.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 259.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.33 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 50c | 255.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 75c | 247.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 229.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 24c | 223.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 168$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 159.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 76c | 145$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 139.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 132$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 124$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 79c | 115.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 115.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 112.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 77c | 101.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 100.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 98.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 97.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 88.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 79.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 71.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 66c | 60.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 53.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…572abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 47.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 47.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 29c | 44.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 43.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 43.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 40.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 32.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 32.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 31.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 36c | 30.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 28.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 43c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 60c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 70c | 23.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 75c | 17.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.