Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869021bf069ea48e9a33bd7148f1babc7601707dc9989e3777e6c059cc2358c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paper Rexof Paper Rex, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a65…9e1cbacked Bilibili Gaming | 2c | 3,547$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 2,057$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Paper Rex | 74c | 1,700$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.83 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bilibili Gaming | 25c | 1,518$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.58 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Paper Rex | 72c | 1,488$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Paper Rex | 74c | 1,447$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.33 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 1,033$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Bilibili Gaming | 37c | 866.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Paper Rex | 72c | 854.9$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Paper Rex | 72c | 736.94$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 709.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 297 | 33.3%99 W · 198 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 649.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.99 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4e9ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 25c | 620$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Bilibili Gaming | 26c | 522.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Bilibili Gaming | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…2ccabacked Paper Rex | 73c | 441.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Bilibili Gaming | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Paper Rex | 72c | 207.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Paper Rex | 74c | 182.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…b9d2backed Paper Rex | 72c | 169.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…e87dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 14c | 139.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe475…9a24backed Paper Rex | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…881cbacked Paper Rex | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Paper Rex | 74c | 135.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed Paper Rex | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Bilibili Gaming | 44c | 104.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Bilibili Gaming | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…3224backed Paper Rex | 74c | 94.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Paper Rex | 73c | 76.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…8b3abacked Bilibili Gaming | 29c | 75.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…378abacked Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 72.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Paper Rex | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce7…cc16backed Bilibili Gaming | 27c | 45.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Bilibili Gaming | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Paper Rex | 75c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Paper Rex | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Paper Rex | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Paper Rex | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4080backed Paper Rex | 69c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Paper Rex | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Paper Rex | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Paper Rex | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Paper Rex | 74c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…5126backed Paper Rex | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Paper Rex | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…776abacked Paper Rex | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Paper Rex | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…99f7backed Paper Rex | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c41…6b5ebacked Paper Rex | 73c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.