Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869f607342e9c692395781e03668f3484698d683edb0fcb1343ab4576450f5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 64c | 2,738$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.26 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 36c | 2,393$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…f245backed Under | 65c | 1,677$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 35c | 877$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.05 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 56c | 692.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.17 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 35c | 642.97$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.93 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 36c | 600$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…12f5backed Under | 66c | 298.52$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 34c | 275.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 65c | 207.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 35c | 200.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 64c | 195.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 19c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 41c | 127.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 59c | 122.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…ecc5backed Under | 66c | 120.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Over | 36c | 103.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Under | 57c | 98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Under | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 27c | 68.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 65c | 62.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Over | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Under | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 65c | 20.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)Team Resilience won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.