Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870f07d8bd13599062353abb77ead11e0aac46373313862b36b7a6b21c1f17f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,044 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 3,042$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 71c | 2,168$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.36 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 2,136$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 870.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 573$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 16c | 562.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 80c | 545.27$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 25c | 395.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…e882backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 210.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 188.36$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…7889backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 74c | 182$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…86b4backed No | 80c | 173.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Yes | 27c | 154.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Yes | 8c | 134$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 26c | 115.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 112.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 52c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 74c | 96.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 11c | 95.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 54c | 86.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 72c | 81.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…afc9backed No | 65c | 62.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…a36fbacked No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6ceebacked Yes | 24c | 60.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…0dc1backed Yes | 27c | 55.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 71c | 51.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 26c | 50.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 49.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 80c | 44.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 27c | 41.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 41.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 73c | 40.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 36.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed No | 73c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked No | 70c | 24.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed No | 75c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.