TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,549 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked No60c57,495$34,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,998.082941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes40c19,794$7,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,917.617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Yes40c12,500$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes35c8,911$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.0575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.336465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No60c7,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes37c6,719$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.843,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes40c6,371$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.5553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No60c4,611$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.7969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes40c3,625$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4507345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes31c3,133$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.572,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5dca…87d0backed Yes19c2,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes40c2,304$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.5934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Yes40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No59c1,582$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.4634144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No60c1,581$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.3933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No60c1,390$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.3835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes7c1,308$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.681,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes40c1,060$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4247639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed No61c941$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c807.12$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.851,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397d…32a2backed No61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ef…e9fabacked Yes40c760$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd1…96a7backed Yes40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee0…94c7backed No61c710$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes40c695$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27817652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab35…cd9ebacked Yes41c670.34$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.841250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes40c627.5$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No61c550$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.56144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc190…02aebacked Yes40c450$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed Yes25c436.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.977219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Yes40c392.17$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.911843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes40c367.5$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed No63c290.25$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.391566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes38c288.34$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.574643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No60c284$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No61c271$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.693161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81e…3640backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No61c245$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.551471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes39c237$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.438420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33d8…ad50backed Yes40c222.5$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes20c222.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4830647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Yes39c207.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…e260backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…0b60backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes29c180$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.44240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes37c176.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540f…92bebacked No61c163.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+90.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6033047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12120%0 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked No61c137$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.431687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+36.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes35c130.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0163…9aa0backed No60c130$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Yes39c127$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a51…e067backed Yes40c127$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes39c127$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5363645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No60c125.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No63c115.86$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes39c110$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bd…1469backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0299…5f02backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+50.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked No59c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Yes40c99.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.984156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No60c93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked No79c92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes41c85.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60da…ae16backed Yes40c82.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed No61c82.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed No61c81.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.96875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca1…3d96backed No61c81.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd186…ed6ebacked No60c72.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No79c71.96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4212141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed No60c67.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8125850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Yes39c66.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.293652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes27c65.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes39c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Yes40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked No60c58.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5612157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Yes38c52.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-63.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f23…6d15backed No60c51.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes36c50.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.