Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874a3a93dd78e444b18f1ce78bb86623b40af4dbef2789a674c4ce3ddd24322d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 0c | 8,481$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,479$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 74c | 821.04$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 5c | 418.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 20c | 329.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 327.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 308.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 277.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 237$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 7c | 225.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Yes | 32c | 221.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 12c | 166.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 68c | 154$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 139$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 134.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 16c | 120.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 117.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 107.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 30c | 103.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 99.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 15c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 16c | 90.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 90.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 83.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 15c | 81.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 77.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 18c | 77.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 65.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 49.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 45.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 41.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 28c | 41.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 41.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 66c | 32.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.