Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151c499b96af9048b813924d6e8b598e034d1988429cd74868f4acb0ba5c77ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 1,700$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.17 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 1,043$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 372.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 372.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 342.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 263.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 41c | 206.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 179.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 154.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 65c | 153.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…1ff8backed No | 65c | 148.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 146.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 125.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 124.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…85a9backed Yes | 32c | 123.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 42c | 119.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 113.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…9597backed Yes | 32c | 111.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 111.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 110.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 22c | 110.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 26c | 106.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…6750backed Yes | 32c | 102.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 102.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 93.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 88.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 78c | 52.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 59c | 51.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 48.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 75c | 47.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 39.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 38.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 40c | 37.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 63c | 37.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 42c | 36.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 38c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 35.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 33.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 30.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…0bf7backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.