Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x879083936ec6229135c91b85d92b2c7195f523f015849807d91eda0d6c22a874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 919.95$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 406.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed Yes | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 37c | 287.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 37c | 274.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 36c | 220.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 211.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 62c | 191.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 173.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 68c | 170.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 140.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 139.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 44c | 131.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 123.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 105.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 30c | 103.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 96.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 90.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 44c | 90.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 74.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 73.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 72.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 71.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 45c | 68.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 26c | 67.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 51.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 77c | 44.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 50c | 43.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 42.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 42.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked No | 63c | 40.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 40.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 40.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 53c | 39.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 36.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 37c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 63c | 32.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 31.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 29.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…0c18backed Yes | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…a644backed Yes | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…d9dabacked Yes | 36c | 27.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 36c | 27.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 44c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 62c | 25.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 58c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 23.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 23.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 22.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 64c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 73c | 15.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.