Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c17893bb4f6bcc6f14fdf67cdc3892011d54fa4cc496e46db75b5f1a67c0fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 392.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 379.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 281.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 272.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed No | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 179.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 8c | 177.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 174.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 154.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 153.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 150.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 9c | 148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 130.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 109.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 96.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 66c | 76.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 72.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 69.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 35c | 64.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 47.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 33.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…6333backed Yes | 52c | 28.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 64c | 26.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 65c | 21.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked Yes | 79c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked Yes | 80c | 16.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.