TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cloud9of Team Liquid, Cloud9
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid43c22,937$9,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,786.671,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Cloud951c20,217$10,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,971.292,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Cloud949c13,043$6,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.531,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Liquid42c10,861$4,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.791,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Cloud944c7,145$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,971.0819041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid55c5,699$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.31,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid56c5,376$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.991,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid54c4,823$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.4685442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid66c4,794$3,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,161.6295041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Cloud949c4,067$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.8463546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Team Liquid63c4,000$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.9683560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Liquid22c3,782$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.251,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd458…1c90backed Cloud928c3,688$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.433056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Cloud958c3,471$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.4291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Cloud974c3,259$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.2267760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Liquid15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Cloud951c2,994$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.1498956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Team Liquid32c2,930$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.9564247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid37c2,464$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.6387844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Cloud957c2,293$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.421,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team Liquid11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Team Liquid53c1,975$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.561,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Cloud956c1,899$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.341,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid66c1,896$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.5976142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Team Liquid41c1,750$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.588543.5%37 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Cloud947c1,710$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.0154246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Cloud963c1,459$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.031,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Team Liquid24c1,417$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.747758.4%45 W · 32 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Cloud941c1,368$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.8586251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid58c1,309$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.822,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Team Liquid57c1,260$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.6843358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Team Liquid40c1,232$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.814930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Cloud957c1,202$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.041,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Cloud959c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.882,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid70c1,169$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.961,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team Liquid38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Team Liquid76c1,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76017749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid52c918.99$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.131,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Cloud956c894.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.213538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Cloud975c811.88$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3946263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid68c810.34$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9489347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Liquid66c771.27$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.451,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Team Liquid53c740$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3836749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed Team Liquid34c734.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.588834.1%30 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Cloud935c719.81$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.3433125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cloud957c680$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.460347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Cloud965c674.9$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.261,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Cloud952c654$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.273,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Liquid65c642.94$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.731,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Liquid63c626.18$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.511,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Cloud970c615.28$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.541,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cloud969c608.08$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.872,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Cloud961c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23464453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Team Liquid46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27695048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Team Liquid37c599.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid62c573.8$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7630357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Cloud976c563.2$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4750569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid42c563.07$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.132,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Cloud954c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.561,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Liquid46c550.56$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.261,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Cloud955c549.8$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.4196250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Team Liquid52c544.88$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7964451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Team Liquid66c537.16$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5352848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Cloud960c526.93$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7714154.6%77 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Cloud929c512.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.0785652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Cloud950c499.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cloud935c499.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.191,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Cloud966c498.72$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.91,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Liquid39c492.31$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19224235.5%86 W · 156 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Team Liquid41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20041060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Team Liquid31c486.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Team Liquid10c480$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.545618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Cloud942c471.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2343539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Cloud978c463.3$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9345937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Team Liquid32c450.04$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2369841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Team Liquid47c445.43$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2182836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Team Liquid40c437.5$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea86…090dbacked Team Liquid26c434.87$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.516349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Cloud958c428.57$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5779864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Cloud954c427.22$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.521,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Team Liquid40c426.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.151,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Team Liquid46c413.04$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905062%31 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Cloud935c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+51.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Team Liquid75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Cloud936c400$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3533251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid33c399.77$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9369539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Cloud926c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.6227244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud980c378.12$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.142,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Team Liquid54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd8…7514backed Cloud924c369.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.4835533.5%119 W · 236 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9667…42b2backed Team Liquid47c347.68$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Team Liquid64c344.31$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22039747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Team Liquid16c324.14$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4115232.2%49 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Cloud935c313.08$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7434743.5%151 W · 196 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Cloud922c309.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.061,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Cloud939c304.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8451454.5%280 W · 234 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f24…b463backed Team Liquid42c300$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12525149.8%125 W · 126 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Cloud935c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7147453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Cloud954c277.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8246650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Team Liquid27c265.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9757947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.